Does Donald Trump try to be jailed?

Georges Ugeux
4 min readJan 16, 2024

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The former President is as incoherent as he is devious.

He continues to contradict himself and create confusion among its partisans and his opponents. There is however one constant theme in (almost) every talk he gives: Donald Trump is the victim of a conspiracy from the Democrats, the judges, the lawyers, and half the population of this country. He is, however, losing that battle, as he lost the election. He will never recognize it.

Victimhood

However, the various judicial actions against him converge in making Donald Trump the perpetrator of the mischiefs he is accusing his opponents to foment. In this context, it becomes harder to convince any sensible citizen that there is a conspiracy against him.

Playing the victim has some benefits: there are some people who claim it is never their fault. They argue that they have no control over the tough situations and problems they encounter. It is simply always happening to them. Donald Trump never assumed any responsibility for his actions and words. It is his identity, and he is infuriated by those who accuse him of what he has done.

He does it for a reason: it makes him unaccountable and plays the “poor” to attract sympathy. It is, however, a dangerous game. Recusing the reality of his indictments that could lead him to jail compounds his losing game and, for most people, makes him look like a loser. People with a victim mentality unconsciously seek validation and help from others.

A vast array of the population that feels disenfranchised identifies itself with Donald Trump as a victim.

The interest of being jailed

The increased insults and infractions to his gag order could lead him to being arrested. The sanction of this behavior is jail until the end of the judicial process. He knows it and is scared of it. So why is he taking every day the risk of being arrested?

Donald Trump is desperate to get himself out of the pigeonhole he has built for himself, even though he blames the others. One possible outcome is jail. For his partisans, and maybe some others, he believes he will be able to regain sympathy as an obvious victim.

Handcuffed, he will parade. From jail, he will continue to influence politics, and maybe give a boost to his candidacy. Yes indeed, he could be elected while being jailed! So in his eyes, the downside is limited, but the upside is huge: it might win him the Presidency.

It does not go further than that, because Donald Trump has not analyzed the effects of his incarceration. He never analyzes the consequences of his actions anyway and follows his (sociopathic) instincts. He would lose control of his destiny. Furthermore, he would lose the campaign funding of the institutions who will find it impossible to support a convict. He could definitely be financially broke.

Democrats should not be afraid of a jailed Trump

President Biden did not mince his words in Vallet Forge: democracy is at stake. A lawyer for Trump indicated that he could send the Navy Seals to kill one of his opponents if he were President, and still benefit from immunity unless the Senate impeaches him.

There is no doubt that the arrest of Donald Trump will create a turmoil. It would be another defining moment in US history, not worse that the invasion of the Capitol by Trump’s troops. Should that refrain judges or authorities to arrest him for a valid cause? This question has been haunting me for the last months.

Either the United States is a country with a rule of law, or those considerations should not play a role in the decision process of the various lawsuits against the former President. Trump would be the criminal winner against the democratic rules and processes. This is the real Pandora Box: not applying the constitution and the laws of the United States is not an option. We would cease to be a country with a rule of law.

Donald Trump has to be convinced he will be jailed. Does he want it? His behavior certainly casts a cloud on what his (conscious or unconscious) wish is. The various lawsuits should not involve the Democrats at the political level.

If Trump acts in a way that would condemn him to a jail term, let it be. It is his own doing, even though he will pretend the contrary. The country is at risk, and we should have the courage to defend our constitution. Whatever the Supreme Court will do, Donald Trump should not be eligible since there is no doubt that he enticed the attack of the Capitol and might have committed other crimes.

Whether he is aware of the risks that are associated with a jail term or not, he certainly continues to behave, consciously or unconsciously. in a way that increases the probability of being jailed.

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Georges Ugeux
Georges Ugeux

Written by Georges Ugeux

CEO at Galileo Global Advisors and Adjunct professor Columbia Law School.

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